PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Athletico 3–3 Cruzeiro · Serie A

3–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Athletico and Cruzeiro drew 3–3.

Shots
1514
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
3.021.8
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletico and Cruzeiro drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (Athletico – Cruzeiro): shots 15–14, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 3.02–1.8, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletico have a visible home split

moderate

Athletico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match14.6 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots14 shotsAthletico 15 shots, Cruzeiro 14 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsAthletico 6 shots, Cruzeiro 5 shots
  • Expected goals3.02 xG1.8 xGAthletico 3.02 xG, Cruzeiro 1.8 xG
  • Possession53%47%Athletico 53%, Cruzeiro 47%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersAthletico 7 corners, Cruzeiro 5 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls23 foulsAthletico 16 fouls, Cruzeiro 23 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico17 matchesCruzeiro17 matches
1.47 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/171.12 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.6 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/171.42 xG/match
14.6 shots/matchShots17/1714.4 shots/match
4.41 shots/matchShots on target17/174.35 shots/match
47.8%Possession17/17● 52.9%
4.65 corners/matchCorners17/17● 7.29 corners/match
15.3 fouls/matchFouls17/1714.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Jul 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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