PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Fluminense 2–1 Palmeiras · Serie A

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 2–1.

Shots
1018
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
2.580.97
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Palmeiras 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Palmeiras): shots 10–18, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 2.58–0.97, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.33 goals/match1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Palmeiras have a visible away split

moderate

Palmeiras's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots18 shotsFluminense 10 shots, Palmeiras 18 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsFluminense 5 shots, Palmeiras 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.58 xG0.97 xGFluminense 2.58 xG, Palmeiras 0.97 xG
  • Possession55%45%Fluminense 55%, Palmeiras 45%
  • Corners0 corners8 cornersFluminense 0 corners, Palmeiras 8 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls22 foulsFluminense 18 fouls, Palmeiras 22 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fluminense
2Draws
0Palmeiras
Fluminense — Palmeiras · Serie A1–1
Palmeiras — Fluminense · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Palmeiras in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense18 matchesPalmeiras18 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.83 goals/match
0.94 goals/matchGoals allowed18/180.94 goals/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.58 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 15.7 shots/match
5.39 shots/matchShots on target18/185.33 shots/match
59.7% ●Possession18/1852.9%
5.78 corners/matchCorners18/18● 6.61 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1815.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Aug 2023, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminensePalmeiras
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headFluminense — Palmeiras
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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