PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Grêmio 3–0 Cruzeiro · Serie A

Grêmio

WDLWL
3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Grêmio won 3–0.

Shots
106
Shots on target
41
Expected goals
1.530.57
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Grêmio beat Cruzeiro 3–0. Recorded in this match (Grêmio – Cruzeiro): shots 10–6, shots on target 4–1, expected goals 1.53–0.57, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Grêmio's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cruzeiro show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Cruzeiro's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsGrêmio · Cruzeiro14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGrêmioCruzeiroBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match14 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against16.5 shots/match11.1 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots6 shotsGrêmio 10 shots, Cruzeiro 6 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots1 shotGrêmio 4 shots, Cruzeiro 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.53 xG0.57 xGGrêmio 1.53 xG, Cruzeiro 0.57 xG
  • Possession39%61%Grêmio 39%, Cruzeiro 61%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersGrêmio 6 corners, Cruzeiro 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls20 foulsGrêmio 12 fouls, Cruzeiro 20 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Grêmio
0Draws
1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro — Grêmio · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio20 matchesCruzeiro21 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/210.95 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed20/21▲ 0.95 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/211.35 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShots20/2114 shots/match
5.15 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/214.38 shots/match
45.7%Possession20/21● 53.4%
5.5 corners/matchCorners20/21● 7.24 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls20/2115.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 28 Aug 2023, 02:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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