PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Grêmio 2–0 Cuiabá · Serie A

Grêmio

DLWLW
2–0Historical match

Cuiabá

WWLLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Grêmio won 2–0.

Shots
1117
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
0.681.13
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Grêmio beat Cuiabá 2–0. Recorded in this match (Grêmio – Cuiabá): shots 11–17, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 0.68–1.13, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cuiabá's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cuiabá's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots17 shotsGrêmio 11 shots, Cuiabá 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsGrêmio 5 shots, Cuiabá 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.68 xG1.13 xGGrêmio 0.68 xG, Cuiabá 1.13 xG
  • Possession42%58%Grêmio 42%, Cuiabá 58%
  • Corners2 corners9 cornersGrêmio 2 corners, Cuiabá 9 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls16 foulsGrêmio 18 fouls, Cuiabá 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Grêmio
0Draws
0Cuiabá
Cuiabá — Grêmio · Serie A1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Cuiabá in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio21 matchesCuiabá22 matches
1.62 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/220.95 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed21/221.23 goals/match
1.44 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/221.02 xG/match
13.6 shots/match ▲Shots21/2212.6 shots/match
5.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/223.91 shots/match
45.5% ●Possession21/2243.2%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners21/225.14 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2212.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Sept 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioCuiabá
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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