PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Fluminense 1–0 Fortaleza · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fluminense won 1–0.

Shots
1320
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.640.88
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fluminense beat Fortaleza 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Fortaleza): shots 13–20, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.64–0.88, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.5% ●PossessionFluminense · Fortaleza46.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFluminenseFortalezaBaseline
Possession61.5%46.7%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots20 shotsFluminense 13 shots, Fortaleza 20 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsFluminense 5 shots, Fortaleza 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.64 xG0.88 xGFluminense 0.64 xG, Fortaleza 0.88 xG
  • Possession64%36%Fluminense 64%, Fortaleza 36%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersFluminense 5 corners, Fortaleza 7 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsFluminense 13 fouls, Fortaleza 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fluminense
0Draws
1Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Fluminense · Serie A4–2
Fluminense — Fortaleza · Serie A2–1
Fortaleza — Fluminense · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 5 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense22 matchesFortaleza22 matches
1.41 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/221.14 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed22/220.95 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals22/221.47 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 14.9 shots/match
5.64 shots/matchShots on target22/225.36 shots/match
61.5% ●Possession22/2246.7%
6 corners/match ●Corners22/225.23 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls22/2214 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Sept 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
Head-to-headFluminense — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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