PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Vasco da Gama 4–2 Fluminense · Serie A

4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Vasco da Gama won 4–2.

Shots
919
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
1.371.93
Possession
29%71%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vasco da Gama beat Fluminense 4–2. Recorded in this match (Vasco da Gama – Fluminense): shots 9–19, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 1.37–1.93, possession 29%–71%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vasco da Gama's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vasco da Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.91 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fluminense have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.7%PossessionVasco da Gama · Fluminense● 62%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVasco da GamaFluminenseBaseline
Possession46.7%62%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots19 shotsVasco da Gama 9 shots, Fluminense 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsVasco da Gama 4 shots, Fluminense 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.37 xG1.93 xGVasco da Gama 1.37 xG, Fluminense 1.93 xG
  • Possession29%71%Vasco da Gama 29%, Fluminense 71%
  • Corners4 corners11 cornersVasco da Gama 4 corners, Fluminense 11 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsVasco da Gama 12 fouls, Fluminense 7 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Vasco da Gama
1Draws
0Fluminense
Fluminense — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vasco da Gama favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Fluminense in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vasco da Gama22 matchesFluminense23 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored22/23▲ 1.43 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed22/23▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals22/23▲ 1.46 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots22/23▲ 14.1 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target22/23▲ 5.74 shots/match
46.7%Possession22/23● 62%
5.18 corners/matchCorners22/23● 6.22 corners/match
16 fouls/matchFouls22/2313 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Sept 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVasco da GamaFluminense
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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