PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Flamengo 1–0 Bahia · Serie A

1–0Historical match

Bahia

WLDWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Flamengo won 1–0.

Shots
156
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.420.55
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

Flamengo beat Bahia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Flamengo – Bahia): shots 15–6, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.42–0.55, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Flamengo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Flamengo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Flamengo have a visible home split

moderate

Flamengo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match13 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots6 shotsFlamengo 15 shots, Bahia 6 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsFlamengo 5 shots, Bahia 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.42 xG0.55 xGFlamengo 1.42 xG, Bahia 0.55 xG
  • Possession67%33%Flamengo 67%, Bahia 33%
  • Corners12 corners2 cornersFlamengo 12 corners, Bahia 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsFlamengo 11 fouls, Bahia 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Flamengo
0Draws
0Bahia
Bahia — Flamengo · Serie A2–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Flamengo favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Flamengo25 matchesBahia25 matches
1.48 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.12 goals/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.36 goals/match
1.4 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/251.31 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target25/254.56 shots/match
59% ●Possession25/2551.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.88 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls25/2515.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFlamengoBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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