PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Vasco da Gama 1–0 Fortaleza · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Vasco da Gama won 1–0.

Shots
1812
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
1.810.72
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vasco da Gama beat Fortaleza 1–0. Recorded in this match (Vasco da Gama – Fortaleza): shots 18–12, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 1.81–0.72, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vasco da Gama's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vasco da Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza have a visible away split

moderate

Fortaleza's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match15 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots12 shotsVasco da Gama 18 shots, Fortaleza 12 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsVasco da Gama 8 shots, Fortaleza 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.81 xG0.72 xGVasco da Gama 1.81 xG, Fortaleza 0.72 xG
  • Possession48%52%Vasco da Gama 48%, Fortaleza 52%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersVasco da Gama 6 corners, Fortaleza 6 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls9 foulsVasco da Gama 7 fouls, Fortaleza 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Vasco da Gama
0Draws
1Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Vasco da Gama · Serie A2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vasco da Gama favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vasco da Gama27 matchesFortaleza27 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.22 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 1 goal/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals27/27▲ 1.51 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 15 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 5.3 shots/match
48.1% ●Possession27/2747%
5.63 corners/match ●Corners27/275.11 corners/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls27/2713.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 19 Oct 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVasco da GamaFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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