PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Atlético Mineiro 3–0 Grêmio · Serie A

3–0Historical match

Grêmio

WWWWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro won 3–0.

Shots
1721
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
2.191.17
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Mineiro beat Grêmio 3–0. Recorded in this match (Atlético Mineiro – Grêmio): shots 17–21, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 2.19–1.17, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlético Mineiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Mineiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.31 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots21 shotsAtlético Mineiro 17 shots, Grêmio 21 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsAtlético Mineiro 6 shots, Grêmio 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.19 xG1.17 xGAtlético Mineiro 2.19 xG, Grêmio 1.17 xG
  • Possession44%56%Atlético Mineiro 44%, Grêmio 56%
  • Corners7 corners7 cornersAtlético Mineiro 7 corners, Grêmio 7 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsAtlético Mineiro 10 fouls, Grêmio 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Atlético Mineiro
0Draws
1Grêmio
Grêmio — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro35 matchesGrêmio35 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲ 1.63 goals/match
0.77 goals/match ▲Goals allowed35/351.51 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals35/351.32 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots35/3513.4 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target35/35▲ 5.03 shots/match
53% ●Possession35/3546.7%
5.11 corners/matchCorners35/35● 5.37 corners/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls35/3512.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Nov 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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