PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Cruzeiro 1–2 Fortaleza · Serie A

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 1–2.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
0.821.23
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Cruzeiro 2–1. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – Fortaleza): shots 15–11, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 0.82–1.23, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.3 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.3 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Cruzeiro have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.5% ●PossessionCruzeiro · Fortaleza41.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCruzeiroFortalezaBaseline
Possession51.5%41.5%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shotsCruzeiro 15 shots, Fortaleza 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsCruzeiro 7 shots, Fortaleza 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.82 xG1.23 xGCruzeiro 0.82 xG, Fortaleza 1.23 xG
  • Possession68%32%Cruzeiro 68%, Fortaleza 32%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerCruzeiro 5 corners, Fortaleza 1 corner
  • Fouls18 fouls17 foulsCruzeiro 18 fouls, Fortaleza 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cruzeiro
1Draws
1Fortaleza
Fortaleza — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–1
Fortaleza — Cruzeiro · Serie A0–1
Cruzeiro — Fortaleza · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Fortaleza in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro20 matchesFortaleza20 matches
1.45 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/201.3 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 0.95 goals/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲ 1.23 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots20/2012.6 shots/match
4.7 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/203.75 shots/match
51.5% ●Possession20/2041.5%
5.1 corners/matchCorners20/205.1 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 6 Aug 2024, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroFortaleza
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headCruzeiro — Fortaleza
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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