PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Athletico 0–2 Grêmio · Serie A

0–2Historical match

Grêmio

LLWDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Grêmio won 0–2.

Shots
189
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
0.862.2
Possession
75%25%

Full time

What the match recorded

Grêmio beat Athletico 2–0. Recorded in this match (Athletico – Grêmio): shots 18–9, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 0.86–2.2, possession 75%–25%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletico have a visible home split

moderate

Athletico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.4 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots9 shotsAthletico 18 shots, Grêmio 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsAthletico 3 shots, Grêmio 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.86 xG2.2 xGAthletico 0.86 xG, Grêmio 2.2 xG
  • Possession75%25%Athletico 75%, Grêmio 25%
  • Corners9 corners0 cornersAthletico 9 corners, Grêmio 0 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsAthletico 12 fouls, Grêmio 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Athletico
0Draws
2Grêmio
Grêmio — Athletico · Serie A2–0
Grêmio — Athletico · Serie A1–2
Athletico — Grêmio · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico19 matchesGrêmio19 matches
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/190.89 goals/match
1.05 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.16 goals/match
1.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/191.09 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots18/1912.2 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/194.37 shots/match
51.8% ●Possession18/1947.5%
7.06 corners/match ●Corners18/195.32 corners/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1911.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Aug 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headAthletico — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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