PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Red Bull Bragantino 2–2 Grêmio · Serie A

2–2Historical match

Grêmio

WWLWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Red Bull Bragantino and Grêmio drew 2–2.

Shots
238
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.750.84
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Red Bull Bragantino and Grêmio drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Red Bull Bragantino – Grêmio): shots 23–8, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.75–0.84, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots8 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 23 shots, Grêmio 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsRed Bull Bragantino 6 shots, Grêmio 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.75 xG0.84 xGRed Bull Bragantino 1.75 xG, Grêmio 0.84 xG
  • Possession47%53%Red Bull Bragantino 47%, Grêmio 53%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersRed Bull Bragantino 6 corners, Grêmio 7 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsRed Bull Bragantino 12 fouls, Grêmio 7 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Red Bull Bragantino
1Draws
0Grêmio
Grêmio — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A0–2
Red Bull Bragantino — Grêmio · Serie A2–0
Grêmio — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Red Bull Bragantino favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Grêmio in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Red Bull Bragantino25 matchesGrêmio24 matches
1.24 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/241.04 goals/match
1.28 goals/matchGoals allowed25/241.25 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals25/24▲ 1.14 xG/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots25/2412 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target25/244.46 shots/match
47.2% ●Possession25/2446.5%
5.4 corners/match ●Corners25/245.33 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls25/2410.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Sept 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRed Bull BragantinoGrêmio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headRed Bull Bragantino — Grêmio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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