PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Grêmio 3–2 Flamengo · Serie A

Grêmio

WLWLD
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Grêmio won 3–2.

Shots
1220
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
1.561.42
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Grêmio beat Flamengo 3–2. Recorded in this match (Grêmio – Flamengo): shots 12–20, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 1.56–1.42, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Grêmio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Grêmio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots20 shotsGrêmio 12 shots, Flamengo 20 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shotsGrêmio 3 shots, Flamengo 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.56 xG1.42 xGGrêmio 1.56 xG, Flamengo 1.42 xG
  • Possession44%56%Grêmio 44%, Flamengo 56%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersGrêmio 4 corners, Flamengo 6 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls13 foulsGrêmio 6 fouls, Flamengo 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Grêmio
0Draws
2Flamengo
Flamengo — Grêmio · Serie A2–1
Grêmio — Flamengo · Serie A3–2
Flamengo — Grêmio · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Grêmio favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Flamengo in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Grêmio25 matchesFlamengo26 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored25/26▲ 1.62 goals/match
1.28 goals/matchGoals allowed25/261.23 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals25/26▲ 1.39 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots25/26▲ 14 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target25/26▲ 5.54 shots/match
46.4%Possession25/26● 54.2%
5.28 corners/matchCorners25/26● 5.96 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2611.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 23 Sept 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGrêmioFlamengo
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headGrêmio — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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