PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Bahia 3–0 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

Bahia

LWWDL
3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 3–0.

Shots
165
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.10.55
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Atlético Mineiro 3–0. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Atlético Mineiro): shots 16–5, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.1–0.55, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlético Mineiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Mineiro's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots5 shotsBahia 16 shots, Atlético Mineiro 5 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsBahia 4 shots, Atlético Mineiro 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.1 xG0.55 xGBahia 1.1 xG, Atlético Mineiro 0.55 xG
  • Possession55%45%Bahia 55%, Atlético Mineiro 45%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerBahia 6 corners, Atlético Mineiro 1 corner
  • Fouls17 fouls16 foulsBahia 17 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 16 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bahia
1Draws
1Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A1–1
Bahia — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A4–1
Atlético Mineiro — Bahia · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia26 matchesAtlético Mineiro24 matches
1.42 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/241.33 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/241.5 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals26/241.26 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots26/24▲ 14.7 shots/match
4.62 shots/matchShots on target26/244.63 shots/match
56.4%Possession26/24● 60%
4.65 corners/matchCorners26/24● 5.17 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2413.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Sept 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headBahia — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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