PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fortaleza 4–1 Bahia · Serie A

4–1Historical match

Bahia

WWDLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortaleza won 4–1.

Shots
119
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.530.44
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortaleza beat Bahia 4–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza – Bahia): shots 11–9, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.53–0.44, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortaleza's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fortaleza's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bahia have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.5%PossessionFortaleza · Bahia● 56.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFortalezaBahiaBaseline
Possession41.5%56.7%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsFortaleza 11 shots, Bahia 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsFortaleza 7 shots, Bahia 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.53 xG0.44 xGFortaleza 1.53 xG, Bahia 0.44 xG
  • Possession37%63%Fortaleza 37%, Bahia 63%
  • Corners2 corners1 cornerFortaleza 2 corners, Bahia 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls9 foulsFortaleza 13 fouls, Bahia 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza
1Draws
2Bahia
Bahia — Fortaleza · Serie A1–0
Bahia — Fortaleza · Serie A2–0
Fortaleza — Bahia · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 6 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza27 matchesBahia27 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.41 goals/match
0.96 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.15 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals27/271.29 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots27/2712.9 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 4.59 shots/match
41.5%Possession27/27● 56.7%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners27/274.52 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Sept 2024, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortalezaBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headFortaleza — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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