PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fluminense 0–1 Botafogo · Serie A

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Botafogo won 0–1.

Shots
139
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
0.41.63
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Botafogo beat Fluminense 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fluminense – Botafogo): shots 13–9, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 0.4–1.63, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.81 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsFluminense 13 shots, Botafogo 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsFluminense 5 shots, Botafogo 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.4 xG1.63 xGFluminense 0.4 xG, Botafogo 1.63 xG
  • Possession50%50%Fluminense 50%, Botafogo 50%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersFluminense 5 corners, Botafogo 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls17 foulsFluminense 13 fouls, Botafogo 17 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fluminense
1Draws
3Botafogo
Botafogo — Fluminense · Serie A1–0
Fluminense — Botafogo · Serie A0–2
Botafogo — Fluminense · Serie A1–0
Fluminense — Botafogo · Serie A2–2
Botafogo — Fluminense · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fluminense favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Botafogo in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fluminense26 matchesBotafogo27 matches
0.81 goals/matchGoals scored26/27▲ 1.7 goals/match
1.12 goals/matchGoals allowed26/27▲ 0.93 goals/match
0.83 xG/matchExpected goals26/27▲ 1.46 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots26/27▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.12 shots/matchShots on target26/27▲ 5.59 shots/match
54.6% ●Possession26/2751.8%
4.31 corners/matchCorners26/27● 5.74 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls26/2716.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Sept 2024, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFluminenseBotafogo
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headFluminense — Botafogo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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