PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Vasco da Gama 3–2 Bahia · Serie A

3–2Historical match

Bahia

WLWLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Vasco da Gama won 3–2.

Shots
1512
Shots on target
87
Expected goals
1.861.91
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vasco da Gama beat Bahia 3–2. Recorded in this match (Vasco da Gama – Bahia): shots 15–12, shots on target 8–7, expected goals 1.86–1.91, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.35 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bahia have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.9%PossessionVasco da Gama · Bahia● 55.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVasco da GamaBahiaBaseline
Possession47.9%55.9%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots12 shotsVasco da Gama 15 shots, Bahia 12 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots7 shotsVasco da Gama 8 shots, Bahia 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.86 xG1.91 xGVasco da Gama 1.86 xG, Bahia 1.91 xG
  • Possession48%52%Vasco da Gama 48%, Bahia 52%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersVasco da Gama 2 corners, Bahia 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls9 foulsVasco da Gama 11 fouls, Bahia 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Vasco da Gama
1Draws
2Bahia
Bahia — Vasco da Gama · Serie A2–1
Bahia — Vasco da Gama · Serie A1–1
Vasco da Gama — Bahia · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vasco da Gama favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bahia in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vasco da Gama31 matchesBahia31 matches
1.16 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 1.35 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.34 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots31/31▲ 12.9 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 4.65 shots/match
47.9%Possession31/31● 55.9%
4.23 corners/matchCorners31/31● 4.68 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls31/3111.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 29 Oct 2024, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVasco da GamaBahia
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024
Head-to-headVasco da Gama — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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