PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Fortaleza CEIF 1–2 Once Caldas · Primera A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Once Caldas won 1–2.

Shots
921
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
0.451.46
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Once Caldas beat Fortaleza CEIF 2–1. Recorded in this match (Fortaleza CEIF – Once Caldas): shots 9–21, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 0.45–1.46, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Once Caldas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortaleza CEIF have a visible home split

moderate

Fortaleza CEIF's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots21 shotsFortaleza CEIF 9 shots, Once Caldas 21 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shotsFortaleza CEIF 2 shots, Once Caldas 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.45 xG1.46 xGFortaleza CEIF 0.45 xG, Once Caldas 1.46 xG
  • Possession45%55%Fortaleza CEIF 45%, Once Caldas 55%
  • Corners0 corners4 cornersFortaleza CEIF 0 corners, Once Caldas 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls14 foulsFortaleza CEIF 7 fouls, Once Caldas 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza CEIF
0Draws
1Once Caldas
Once Caldas — Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A4–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Once Caldas in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza CEIF26 matchesOnce Caldas27 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored26/27▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed26/27▲ 1.19 goals/match
0.83 xG/matchExpected goals22/24▲ 1.09 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots26/27▲ 14.9 shots/match
3.77 shots/matchShots on target26/27▲ 5.59 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession26/2753.5%
4.12 corners/matchCorners26/27● 5.15 corners/match
3.56 cards/matchCards9/63 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2710.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortaleza CEIFOnce Caldas
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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