PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Orenburg 0–2 Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lokomotiv Moscow won 0–2.

Shots
1319
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
0.872.2
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Orenburg 2–0. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – Lokomotiv Moscow): shots 13–19, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 0.87–2.2, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orenburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orenburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots19 shotsOrenburg 13 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsOrenburg 4 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.87 xG2.2 xGOrenburg 0.87 xG, Lokomotiv Moscow 2.2 xG
  • Possession58%42%Orenburg 58%, Lokomotiv Moscow 42%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersOrenburg 6 corners, Lokomotiv Moscow 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsOrenburg 12 fouls, Lokomotiv Moscow 10 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Orenburg
0Draws
2Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow — Orenburg · Premier League0–2
Orenburg — Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League1–4
Lokomotiv Moscow — Orenburg · Premier League5–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Lokomotiv Moscow in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg28 matchesLokomotiv Moscow28 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 1.68 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.32 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals27/28▲ 1.58 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots28/2813.6 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 4.75 shots/match
53.5% ●Possession28/2851.8%
5.25 corners/matchCorners28/28● 6 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 May 2024, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgLokomotiv Moscow
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headOrenburg — Lokomotiv Moscow
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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