PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Orenburg 2–4 Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League

2–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lokomotiv Moscow won 2–4.

Shots
1625
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
3.143.79
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Orenburg 4–2. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – Lokomotiv Moscow): shots 16–25, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 3.14–3.79, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orenburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

Orenburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots25 shotsOrenburg 16 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 25 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shotsOrenburg 3 shots, Lokomotiv Moscow 8 shots
  • Expected goals3.14 xG3.79 xGOrenburg 3.14 xG, Lokomotiv Moscow 3.79 xG
  • Possession44%56%Orenburg 44%, Lokomotiv Moscow 56%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersOrenburg 6 corners, Lokomotiv Moscow 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsOrenburg 11 fouls, Lokomotiv Moscow 12 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Orenburg
0Draws
3Lokomotiv Moscow
Orenburg — Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League0–2
Lokomotiv Moscow — Orenburg · Premier League0–2
Orenburg — Lokomotiv Moscow · Premier League1–4
Lokomotiv Moscow — Orenburg · Premier League5–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Lokomotiv Moscow in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg8 matchesLokomotiv Moscow8 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.38 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.5 goals/match
2.03 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.79 xG/match
17 shots/match ▲Shots5/515.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 5.6 shots/match
51.4% ●Possession5/548.4%
6 corners/matchCorners5/5● 6.2 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Sept 2024, 13:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgLokomotiv Moscow
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headOrenburg — Lokomotiv Moscow
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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