PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Orenburg 1–2 FC Rostov · Premier League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Rostov won 1–2.

Shots
1024
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
1.453.32
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Rostov beat Orenburg 2–1. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – FC Rostov): shots 10–24, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 1.45–3.32, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orenburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orenburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.85 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots24 shotsOrenburg 10 shots, FC Rostov 24 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsOrenburg 5 shots, FC Rostov 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.45 xG3.32 xGOrenburg 1.45 xG, FC Rostov 3.32 xG
  • Possession54%46%Orenburg 54%, FC Rostov 46%
  • Corners7 corners7 cornersOrenburg 7 corners, FC Rostov 7 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls14 foulsOrenburg 19 fouls, FC Rostov 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Orenburg
2Draws
3FC Rostov
FC Rostov — Orenburg · Premier League3–2
FC Rostov — Orenburg · Premier League2–1
Orenburg — FC Rostov · Premier League1–1
Orenburg — FC Rostov · Premier League2–2
FC Rostov — Orenburg · Premier League2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Rostov in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg20 matchesFC Rostov20 matches
0.85 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals14/12▲ 1.84 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots14/12▲ 16.4 shots/match
3.36 shots/matchShots on target14/12▲ 4.58 shots/match
50.5%Possession14/12● 55.8%
6.21 corners/match ●Corners14/124.67 corners/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls14/1211.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgFC Rostov
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headOrenburg — FC Rostov
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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