PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Cardiff City 3–1 Charlton Athletic · Championship

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cardiff City won 3–1.

Shots
276
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
2.71.04
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cardiff City beat Charlton Athletic 3–1. Recorded in this match (Cardiff City – Charlton Athletic): shots 27–6, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 2.7–1.04, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Charlton Athletic's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Charlton Athletic's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cardiff City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cardiff City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsCardiff City · Charlton Athletic9.75 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCardiff CityCharlton AthleticBaseline
Shots18.8 shots/match9.75 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match16.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Cardiff City have recorded the higher season possession share.

64.6% ●PossessionCardiff City · Charlton Athletic38%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 26.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCardiff CityCharlton AthleticBaseline
Possession64.6%38%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots27 shots6 shotsCardiff City 27 shots, Charlton Athletic 6 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsCardiff City 8 shots, Charlton Athletic 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.7 xG1.04 xGCardiff City 2.7 xG, Charlton Athletic 1.04 xG
  • Possession62%38%Cardiff City 62%, Charlton Athletic 38%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerCardiff City 6 corners, Charlton Athletic 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls15 foulsCardiff City 10 fouls, Charlton Athletic 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards3 cardsCardiff City 5 cards, Charlton Athletic 3 cards
  • Passes506 passes311 passesCardiff City 506 passes, Charlton Athletic 311 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.4%67.9%Cardiff City 81.4%, Charlton Athletic 67.9%
  • Shots inside box16 shots3 shotsCardiff City 16 shots, Charlton Athletic 3 shots
  • Blocked shots9 blocks2 blocksCardiff City 9 blocks, Charlton Athletic 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesCardiff City 2 saves, Charlton Athletic 5 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides4 offsidesCardiff City 0 offsides, Charlton Athletic 4 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jack Moylan · Cardiff City · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPerry Ng · Cardiff City · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTyreece Campbell · Charlton Athletic · 67′ · 0.02 xG · on targetChris Willock · Cardiff City · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJack Moylan · Cardiff City · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJack Moylan · Cardiff City · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJack Moylan · Cardiff City · 61′ · 0.03 xG · goalJoel Bagan · Cardiff City · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPerry Ng · Cardiff City · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoel Colwill · Cardiff City · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJack Moylan · Cardiff City · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavid Turnbull · Cardiff City · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlex Robertson · Cardiff City · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 69′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPerry Ng · Cardiff City · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKarlan Grant · Charlton Athletic · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChris Willock · Cardiff City · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMiles Leaburn · Charlton Athletic · 4′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoel Colwill · Cardiff City · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJack Moylan · Cardiff City · 32′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJack Moylan · Cardiff City · 8′ · 0.13 xG · goalOllie Tanner · Cardiff City · 68′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedYousef Salech · Cardiff City · 24′ · 0.14 xG · goalJoel Colwill · Cardiff City · 55′ · 0.15 xG · on targetIvan Mesík · Charlton Athletic · 3′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedTyreece Campbell · Charlton Athletic · 29′ · 0.28 xG · goalYousef Salech · Cardiff City · 50′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Kelman · Charlton Athletic · 71′ · 0.34 xG · on targetJoel Colwill · Cardiff City · 37′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedYousef Salech · Cardiff City · 43′ · 0.72 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cardiff City: 27 shots, 8 on target, 2.73 xG. Charlton Athletic: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Jack Moylan · Cardiff City · 8′Yousef Salech · Cardiff City · 24′Jack Moylan · Cardiff City · 61′Tyreece Campbell · Charlton Athletic · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cardiff City 2.73 xG · Charlton Athletic 1.00 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Cardiff City4-2-3-1
  1. Nathan TrottG
  2. Joel BaganD
  3. Gabriel OshoD
  4. Krystian BielikD
  5. Perry NgD
  6. Jack MoylanM
  7. David TurnbullM
  8. Alex RobertsonM
  9. Yousef SalechF
  10. Chris WillockF
  11. Cian AshfordF
Charlton Athletic4-2-3-1
  1. Arthur OkonkwoG
  2. Lloyd JonesD
  3. Ivan MesíkD
  4. Danny McNamaraD
  5. Tyler BindonD
  6. Conor CoventryM
  7. Sonny CareyM
  8. Oliver SkippM
  9. Tyreece CampbellF
  10. Millenic AlliF
  11. Charlie KelmanF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cardiff City favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Charlton Athletic in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cardiff City8 matchesCharlton Athletic8 matches
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.76 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.76 xG/match
18.8 shots/match ▲Shots8/89.75 shots/match
6.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/82.63 shots/match
64.6% ●Possession8/838%
7.75 corners/match ●Corners8/84.38 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls8/811.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCardiff CityCharlton Athletic
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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