2. Bundesliga · 2026Fri, 14 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeHolstein-StadionFull-time analysis

Holstein Kiel

2–2Full-time analysis

FC St. Pauli

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Holstein Kiel	FC St. Pauli
Shots	19 shots ▲	13 shots
Shots on target	6 shots	6 shots
Expected goals	2.09 xG	2.56 xG ▲
Possession	64% ●	36%
Corners	5 corners	5 corners
Fouls	14 fouls	19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.06 xG. FC St. Pauli: 13 shots, 6 on target, 2.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 2.06 xG · FC St. Pauli 2.57 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – FC St. Pauli): shots 19–13, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 2.09–2.56, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

Last 5 meetings

0Holstein Kiel

0Draws

5FC St. Pauli

12 Apr 2025Holstein Kiel — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–2

29 Nov 2024FC St. Pauli — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga3–1

23 Feb 2024Holstein Kiel — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga3–4

17 Sept 2023FC St. Pauli — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga5–1

19 May 2023Holstein Kiel — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga3–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 1 match

6.23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.21 days

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited

Season samples2 / 2home / away teams

Recent samples2 / 2last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 14 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4