PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

FCV Dender 1–2 KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KRC Genk won 1–2.

Shots
228
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.761.11
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

KRC Genk beat FCV Dender 2–1. Recorded in this match (FCV Dender – KRC Genk): shots 22–8, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.76–1.11, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

KRC Genk's recent record differs from the season

moderate

KRC Genk's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

KRC Genk show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

KRC Genk's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsFCV Dender · KRC Genk15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFCV DenderKRC GenkBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

KRC Genk have a visible away split

moderate

KRC Genk's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots8 shotsFCV Dender 22 shots, KRC Genk 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsFCV Dender 7 shots, KRC Genk 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.76 xG1.11 xGFCV Dender 2.76 xG, KRC Genk 1.11 xG
  • Possession51%49%FCV Dender 51%, KRC Genk 49%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersFCV Dender 8 corners, KRC Genk 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsFCV Dender 12 fouls, KRC Genk 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Yaimar Medina · KRC Genk · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlireza Jahanbakhsh · FCV Dender · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJunya Ito · KRC Genk · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBryan Goncalves · FCV Dender · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMalcolm Viltard · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Karetsas · KRC Genk · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 31′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAaron Bibout · KRC Genk · 26′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAaron Bibout · KRC Genk · 66′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLuc Marijnissen · FCV Dender · 74′ · 0.11 xG · on targetDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 44′ · 0.12 xG · on targetDaan Heymans · KRC Genk · 8′ · 0.16 xG · goalLuc Marijnissen · FCV Dender · 81′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKobe Cools · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.22 xG · on targetKonstantinos Karetsas · KRC Genk · 56′ · 0.22 xG · on targetBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 79′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 40′ · 0.26 xG · on targetBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 14′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 40′ · 0.40 xG · on targetDaan Heymans · KRC Genk · 4′ · 0.42 xG · goalBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 58′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FCV Dender: 22 shots, 7 on target, 2.87 xG. KRC Genk: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.09 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Bruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 58′Daan Heymans · KRC Genk · 4′Daan Heymans · KRC Genk · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FCV Dender 2.87 xG · KRC Genk 1.09 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FCV Dender
0Draws
3KRC Genk
KRC Genk — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League2–1
FCV Dender — KRC Genk · Belgian Pro League0–1
KRC Genk — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FCV Dender favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · KRC Genk in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FCV Dender23 matchesKRC Genk25 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored23/25▲ 1.4 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed23/25▲ 1.48 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.37 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots23/25▲ 15.8 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target23/25▲ 5.76 shots/match
46.8%Possession23/25● 61.8%
3.48 corners/matchCorners23/25● 5.6 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2510.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFCV DenderKRC Genk
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headFCV Dender — KRC Genk
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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