Belgian Pro League · 2025Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 18:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Cercle Brugge

DLWLW

0–0Full-time recap

FCV Dender

DLLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Cercle Brugge	FCV Dender
Shots	21 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.75 xG/match▲	1.09 xG/match
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	9 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Cercle Brugge: 21 shots, 8 on target, 1.75 xG. FCV Dender: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cercle Brugge 1.75 xG · FCV Dender 1.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cercle Brugge's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cercle Brugge's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cercle Brugge's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.8 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Cercle Brugge

2Draws

0FCV Dender

26 Jul 2025FCV Dender — Cercle Brugge · Belgian Pro League0–0

18 Jan 2025FCV Dender — Cercle Brugge · Belgian Pro League0–1

19 Oct 2024Cercle Brugge — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Cercle Brugge favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · FCV Dender in 1 · 4 too close

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/270.78 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/271.63 goals/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/271.14 xG/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/271.5 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 29/2710.9 shots/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2714.9 shots/match

4.34 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/273.93 shots/match

5.03 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/27▲4.63 shots/match

47.3%Possessionseason · 29/27●47.3%

4.9 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/273.56 corners/match

5.28 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/275.48 corners/match

2.11 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2711.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2719%

69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cercle Brugge26.5

FCV Dender32.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cercle Brugge52

FCV Dender16.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cercle Brugge28.4

FCV Dender21.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cercle Brugge85.3

FCV Dender20.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cercle Brugge36.9

FCV Dender44.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cercle Brugge50

FCV Dender5.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cercle Brugge47.1

FCV Dender23.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Cercle Brugge29 matchesFCV Dender27 matches

1.17 goals/match▲Goals scored29/270.78 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/271.63 goals/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals27/271.14 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots29/2710.9 shots/match

4.34 shots/match▲Shots on target29/273.93 shots/match

47.3%Possession29/27●47.3%

4.9 corners/match●Corners29/273.56 corners/match

2.11 cards/matchCards27/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls29/2711.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Cercle Brugge15 matchesFCV Dender14 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/140.86 goals/match

1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/14▲1.5 goals/match

1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.12 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots15/1411 shots/match

5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target15/144.43 shots/match

48.6%●Possession15/1445.4%

5.07 corners/match●Corners15/143.64 corners/match

1.43 cards/matchCards14/0—

9.2 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.14 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 22:15 UTC · analysis-v4