Belgian Pro League · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lommel SK

WWWWW

3–2Full-time recap

FCV Dender

LLLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lommel SK	FCV Dender
Shots	17 shots/match	17 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	6 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	6 fouls/match	19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lommel SK: 17 shots, 7 on target, 0.54 xG. FCV Dender: 17 shots, 3 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lommel SK 0.54 xG · FCV Dender 0.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FCV Dender's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

FCV Dender's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FCV Dender's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	0.89 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lommel SK favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · FCV Dender in 1 · 6 too close

2.8 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/370.89 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/371.76 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/361.15 xG/match

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/361.68 xG/match

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/3711 shots/match

15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/3715.4 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/373.73 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/375.16 shots/match

46.2%Possessionseason · 10/37●47.8%

3.8 corners/match●Cornersseason · 10/373.78 corners/match

7.4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/37▲5.73 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 1/0—

9.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/3711.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/3716%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/3768%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lommel SK17.5

FCV Dender32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lommel SK65

FCV Dender14.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lommel SK50.8

FCV Dender9.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lommel SK22.5

FCV Dender17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lommel SK2.5

FCV Dender72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lommel SK12.5

FCV Dender5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lommel SK28.1

FCV Dender28.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lommel SK10 matchesFCV Dender37 matches

2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/370.89 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/371.76 goals/match

—Expected goals0/361.15 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots10/3711 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/373.73 shots/match

46.2%Possession10/37●47.8%

3.8 corners/match●Corners10/373.78 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/3711.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lommel SK6 matchesFCV Dender19 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored6/190.89 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/191.58 goals/match

—Expected goals0/181.07 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots6/1910.8 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/194.05 shots/match

53%●Possession6/1945.8%

4.33 corners/match●Corners6/193.89 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

8.67 fouls/matchFouls6/1911.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples10 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4