PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

Milan 1–3 Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League

Milan

DDLW
1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 1–3.

Shots
1712
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
2.241.79
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat Milan 3–1. Recorded in this match (Milan – Borussia Dortmund): shots 17–12, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 2.24–1.79, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Borussia Dortmund14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match14 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Milan have a visible home split

weak

Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.3 shots/match16.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.6 corners/match ●CornersMilan · Borussia Dortmund6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricMilanBorussia DortmundBaseline
Corners6.6 corners/match6 corners/match5.27 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots12 shotsMilan 17 shots, Borussia Dortmund 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsMilan 4 shots, Borussia Dortmund 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.24 xG1.79 xGMilan 2.24 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.79 xG
  • Possession54%46%Milan 54%, Borussia Dortmund 46%
  • Corners10 corners1 cornerMilan 10 corners, Borussia Dortmund 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls6 foulsMilan 10 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Yacine Adli · Milan · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLuka Jović · Milan · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 37′ · 0.06 xG · goalSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 5′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 19′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Milan · 27′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · Milan · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuka Jović · Milan · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · Milan · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 69′ · 0.10 xG · goalYacine Adli · Milan · 42′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 84′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 5′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 59′ · 0.13 xG · goalDavide Calabria · Milan · 45′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 88′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedLuka Jović · Milan · 90′ · 0.27 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Milan · 6′ · 0.82 xG · on targetMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 10′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 17 shots, 4 on target, 2.24 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.85 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Samuel Chukwueze · Milan · 37′Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 10′Jamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 59′Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 2.24 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.85 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Milan
1Draws
0Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — Milan · UEFA Champions League0–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 5

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan5 matchesBorussia Dortmund5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 0.6 goals/match
1.58 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.32 xG/match
16.6 shots/match ▲Shots5/514.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/5● 44.2%
6.6 corners/match ●Corners5/56 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 29 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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