PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

WLDLD
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMilanFiorentina
Shots9 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals1.83 xG/match1.99 xG/match▲
Possession42%58%●
Corners3 corners/match11 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Riccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfred Duncan · Fiorentina · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Milan · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Bonaventura · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 49′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicolás González · Fiorentina · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Milan · 44′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNicolás González · Fiorentina · 62′ · 0.08 xG · on targetM'bala Nzola · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDavide Calabria · Milan · 30′ · 0.09 xG · on targetChristian Kouamé · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 23′ · 0.12 xG · on targetCristiano Biraghi · Fiorentina · 58′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 86′ · 0.20 xG · on targetLuka Jović · Milan · 75′ · 0.65 xG · on targetRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.68 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.89 xG. Fiorentina: 21 shots, 4 on target, 1.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Theo Hernández · Milan · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 1.89 xG · Fiorentina 1.97 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Milan
0Draws
2Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1
Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0
Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A4–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 2 · 4 too close

1.62 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/131.54 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.31 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/131.13 xG/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.4 xG/match
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲13.6 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲10.5 shots/match
4.77 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/134.31 shots/match
3.62 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/134.46 shots/match
55.8%Possessionseason · 13/13●57%
4.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/13●5.31 corners/match
3.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/133.69 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1315%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan87.5
Fiorentina92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan68.3
Fiorentina65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan53.3
Fiorentina52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan17.5
Fiorentina42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan47.5
Fiorentina72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan35
Fiorentina67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan51.9
Fiorentina66.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan13 matchesFiorentina13 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.54 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.31 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.13 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots13/13▲13.6 shots/match
4.77 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.31 shots/match
55.8%Possession13/13●57%
4.15 corners/matchCorners13/13●5.31 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan6 matchesFiorentina7 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/7▲1.43 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/71.29 goals/match
1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals6/71.12 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots6/711.7 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/73.86 shots/match
54.8%Possession6/7●54.9%
5.17 corners/matchCorners6/7●5.29 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.2 fouls/matchFouls6/712.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMilanFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Milan vs Fiorentina — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath