PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Milan 1–0 Fiorentina · Serie A

Milan

WLDLD
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 1–0.

Shots
921
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.831.99
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat Fiorentina 1–0. Recorded in this match (Milan – Fiorentina): shots 9–21, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.83–1.99, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots21 shotsMilan 9 shots, Fiorentina 21 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsMilan 6 shots, Fiorentina 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.83 xG1.99 xGMilan 1.83 xG, Fiorentina 1.99 xG
  • Possession42%58%Milan 42%, Fiorentina 58%
  • Corners3 corners11 cornersMilan 3 corners, Fiorentina 11 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 foulsMilan 9 fouls, Fiorentina 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Riccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfred Duncan · Fiorentina · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Milan · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Bonaventura · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 49′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicolás González · Fiorentina · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 63′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Sottil · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Milan · 44′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNicolás González · Fiorentina · 62′ · 0.08 xG · on targetM'bala Nzola · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDavide Calabria · Milan · 30′ · 0.09 xG · on targetChristian Kouamé · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 23′ · 0.12 xG · on targetCristiano Biraghi · Fiorentina · 58′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Fiorentina · 86′ · 0.20 xG · on targetLuka Jović · Milan · 75′ · 0.65 xG · on targetRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.68 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.89 xG. Fiorentina: 21 shots, 4 on target, 1.97 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Theo Hernández · Milan · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 1.89 xG · Fiorentina 1.97 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Milan
0Draws
2Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1
Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0
Fiorentina — Milan · Serie A4–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan13 matchesFiorentina13 matches
1.62 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.54 goals/match
1.08 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.31 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.13 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 13.6 shots/match
4.77 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/134.31 shots/match
55.8%Possession13/13● 57%
4.15 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.31 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headMilan — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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