PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Lazio

WWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSalernitanaLazio
Shots13 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.75 xG/match1.98 xG/match▲
Possession38%62%●
Corners4 corners/match9 corners/match●
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Emil Bohinen · Salernitana · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGrigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattéo Guendouzi · Lazio · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 66′ · 0.02 xG · goalGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedElseid Hysaj · Lazio · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 30′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLorenzo Pirola · Salernitana · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGrigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 49′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFlavius Daniliuc · Salernitana · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMattéo Guendouzi · Lazio · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 55′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGrigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGiulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedManuel Lazzari · Lazio · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDaichi Kamada · Lazio · 63′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 60′ · 0.65 xG · off target or blockedGrigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 55′ · 0.70 xG · goalAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 59′ · 0.70 xG · on targetCiro Immobile · Lazio · 43′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Salernitana: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.77 xG. Lazio: 13 shots, 2 on target, 2.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 55′Antonio Candreva · Salernitana · 66′Ciro Immobile · Lazio · 43′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Salernitana 1.77 xG · Lazio 2.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Salernitana's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Salernitana's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Salernitana's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Salernitana's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.77 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Salernitana have a visible home split

moderate

Salernitana's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match10.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Salernitana
0Draws
3Lazio
Salernitana — Lazio · Serie A0–2
Lazio — Salernitana · Serie A1–3
Salernitana — Lazio · Serie A0–3
Lazio — Salernitana · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Salernitana favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Lazio in 9 · 3 too close

0.77 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲1.08 goals/match
1.92 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.15 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.19 xG/match
1.86 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.09 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/1311.3 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲12.4 shots/match
3.46 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.08 shots/match
5.31 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲4.15 shots/match
46.6%Possessionseason · 13/13●52.1%
4.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/13●4.92 corners/match
6.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.15 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1310.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲31%
46%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲69%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Salernitana37.5
Lazio57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Salernitana25.8
Lazio29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Salernitana10.8
Lazio52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Salernitana42.5
Lazio22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Salernitana92.5
Lazio22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Salernitana32.5
Lazio57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Salernitana46.2
Lazio33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Salernitana13 matchesLazio13 matches
0.77 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.08 goals/match
1.92 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.15 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.19 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots13/1311.3 shots/match
3.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.08 shots/match
46.6%Possession13/13●52.1%
4.15 corners/matchCorners13/13●4.92 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Salernitana7 matchesLazio7 matches
0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.57 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.16 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots7/712.4 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.43 shots/match
46.3%Possession7/7●52.3%
5.57 corners/match●Corners7/75.14 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.1 fouls/matchFouls7/710.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSalernitanaLazio
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Salernitana vs Lazio — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath