PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Milan 1–0 Girona FC · UEFA Champions League

Milan

LWWWW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 1–0.

Shots
1711
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.310.94
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat Girona FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Milan – Girona FC): shots 17–11, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.31–0.94, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Girona FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Girona FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.57 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Girona FC have a visible away split

weak

Girona FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.5 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Girona FC10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanGirona FCBaseline
Shots15 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against13.9 shots/match15 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots11 shotsMilan 17 shots, Girona FC 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsMilan 5 shots, Girona FC 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.31 xG0.94 xGMilan 1.31 xG, Girona FC 0.94 xG
  • Possession42%58%Milan 42%, Girona FC 58%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersMilan 6 corners, Girona FC 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls18 foulsMilan 12 fouls, Girona FC 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Davide Calabria · Milan · 11′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · Milan · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavide Calabria · Milan · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Francés · Girona FC · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYangel Herrera · Girona FC · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYáser Asprilla · Girona FC · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Milan · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · Milan · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Milan · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedViktor Tsygankov · Girona FC · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsmaël Bennacer · Milan · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLadislav Krejčí · Girona FC · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYangel Herrera · Girona FC · 5′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 11′ · 0.06 xG · on targetYunus Musah · Milan · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Milan · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRafael Leão · Milan · 46′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDonny van de Beek · Girona FC · 31′ · 0.10 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYangel Herrera · Girona FC · 45′ · 0.12 xG · on targetYangel Herrera · Girona FC · 54′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedViktor Tsygankov · Girona FC · 53′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 24′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedViktor Tsygankov · Girona FC · 33′ · 0.31 xG · on targetRafael Leão · Milan · 37′ · 0.35 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.29 xG. Girona FC: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.02 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Rafael Leão · Milan · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 1.29 xG · Girona FC 1.02 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Girona FC in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan7 matchesGirona FC7 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.57 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
1.5 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.26 xG/match
15 shots/match ▲Shots7/710.3 shots/match
5.86 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
52%Possession7/7● 52.7%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/7● 5.71 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/714.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanGirona FC
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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