PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

FC Bayern München 1–1 Celtic · UEFA Champions League

1–1Historical match

Celtic

DDWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München and Celtic drew 1–1.

Shots
235
Shots on target
103
Expected goals
2.381.12
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München and Celtic drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – Celtic): shots 23–5, shots on target 10–3, expected goals 2.38–1.12, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

21.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Celtic9.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenCelticBaseline
Shots21.8 shots/match9.6 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against7.6 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Celtic have a visible away split

moderate

Celtic's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season9.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots6.2 shots/match9.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celtic's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celtic's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.5 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots5 shotsFC Bayern München 23 shots, Celtic 5 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots3 shotsFC Bayern München 10 shots, Celtic 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.38 xG1.12 xGFC Bayern München 2.38 xG, Celtic 1.12 xG
  • Possession67%33%FC Bayern München 67%, Celtic 33%
  • Corners7 corners0 cornersFC Bayern München 7 corners, Celtic 0 corners
  • Fouls2 fouls9 foulsFC Bayern München 2 fouls, Celtic 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Michael Olise · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 31′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 79′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 67′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 63′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJosip Stanišić · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCallum McGregor · Celtic · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 30′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDaizen Maeda · Celtic · 70′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 74′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 38′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 4′ · 0.18 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.18 xG · on targetDaizen Maeda · Celtic · 18′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedNicolas-Gerrit Kühn · Celtic · 16′ · 0.25 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.40 xG · on targetNicolas-Gerrit Kühn · Celtic · 63′ · 0.62 xG · goalAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.98 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 23 shots, 10 on target, 2.78 xG. Celtic: 5 shots, 3 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Alphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 90′Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn · Celtic · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.78 xG · Celtic 1.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC Bayern München
0Draws
0Celtic
Celtic — FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Celtic in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München10 matchesCeltic10 matches
2.3 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
2.58 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.45 xG/match
21.8 shots/match ▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
8.4 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
67.5% ●Possession10/1050.8%
8.3 corners/match ●Corners10/105.8 corners/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 19 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenCeltic
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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