PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Celtic 1–2 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

Celtic

WDDWL
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–2.

Shots
910
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
1.340.94
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat Celtic 2–1. Recorded in this match (Celtic – FC Bayern München): shots 9–10, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 1.34–0.94, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Celtic's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celtic's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.56 goals/match1.61 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/match ▲ShotsCeltic · FC Bayern München21.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCelticFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match21.7 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match7.89 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.44 corners/matchCornersCeltic · FC Bayern München● 8.44 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricCelticFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Corners6.44 corners/match8.44 corners/match4.88 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots10 shotsCeltic 9 shots, FC Bayern München 10 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shotsCeltic 2 shots, FC Bayern München 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.34 xG0.94 xGCeltic 1.34 xG, FC Bayern München 0.94 xG
  • Possession43%57%Celtic 43%, FC Bayern München 57%
  • Corners7 corners7 cornersCeltic 7 corners, FC Bayern München 7 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls4 foulsCeltic 4 fouls, FC Bayern München 4 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Dayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 46′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJeffrey Schlupp · Celtic · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlistair Johnston · Celtic · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJota · Celtic · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.06 xG · goalJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlistair Johnston · Celtic · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDaizen Maeda · Celtic · 74′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedReo Hatate · Celtic · 51′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedYang Hyun-Jun · Celtic · 79′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedReo Hatate · Celtic · 81′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 49′ · 0.14 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 43′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDaizen Maeda · Celtic · 79′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Celtic: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.36 xG. FC Bayern München: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Daizen Maeda · Celtic · 79′Michael Olise · FC Bayern München · 45′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celtic 1.36 xG · FC Bayern München 0.71 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Celtic favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Celtic9 matchesFC Bayern München9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 2.44 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 2.6 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 21.7 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 8.22 shots/match
52.8%Possession9/9● 67.6%
6.44 corners/matchCorners9/9● 8.44 corners/match
9.22 fouls/matchFouls9/99.11 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 13 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCelticFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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