PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Stade Brestois 2–3 Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 2–3.

Shots
2117
Shots on target
510
Expected goals
1.862.13
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Stade Brestois 3–2. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – Paris Saint-Germain): shots 21–17, shots on target 5–10, expected goals 1.86–2.13, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stade Brestois's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.3%PossessionStade Brestois · Paris Saint-Germain● 69.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStade BrestoisParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Possession50.3%69.4%50.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Stade Brestois have a visible home split

moderate

Stade Brestois's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match15.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots17 shotsStade Brestois 21 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 17 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots10 shotsStade Brestois 5 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 10 shots
  • Expected goals1.86 xG2.13 xGStade Brestois 1.86 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 2.13 xG
  • Possession44%56%Stade Brestois 44%, Paris Saint-Germain 56%
  • Corners9 corners5 cornersStade Brestois 9 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 5 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls10 foulsStade Brestois 14 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Stade Brestois · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 75′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 5′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 70′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanilo Pereira · Paris Saint-Germain · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Dari · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 52′ · 0.07 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 3′ · 0.08 xG · on targetWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 16′ · 0.08 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 21′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 70′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 13′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 65′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 51′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 41′ · 0.12 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 28′ · 0.14 xG · goalGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 19′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 3′ · 0.21 xG · on targetSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 43′ · 0.25 xG · goalJérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 67′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 12′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.73 xG · goalKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 21 shots, 5 on target, 1.87 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 17 shots, 10 on target, 2.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Steve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 43′Jérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 52′Warren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 16′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 28′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 1.87 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 2.75 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Stade Brestois
0Draws
4Paris Saint-Germain
Stade Brestois — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–2
Paris Saint-Germain — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–0
Paris Saint-Germain — Stade Brestois · Ligue 12–0
Stade Brestois — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 12–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois10 matchesParis Saint-Germain10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 2.3 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 0.9 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 2.32 xG/match
15.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 16.5 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲ 6.33 shots/match
50.3%Possession10/10● 69.4%
6.5 corners/match ●Corners10/105.5 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 29 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Paris Saint-Germain
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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