PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Paris Saint-Germain 2–1 Nantes · Ligue 1

2–1Historical match

Nantes

LLLDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 2–1.

Shots
1610
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.020.56
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Nantes 2–1. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Nantes): shots 16–10, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.02–0.56, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

65.7% ●PossessionParis Saint-Germain · Nantes46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainNantesBaseline
Possession65.7%46.2%51.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Nantes12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainNantesBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots10 shotsParis Saint-Germain 16 shots, Nantes 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsParis Saint-Germain 6 shots, Nantes 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.02 xG0.56 xGParis Saint-Germain 2.02 xG, Nantes 0.56 xG
  • Possession65%35%Paris Saint-Germain 65%, Nantes 35%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersParis Saint-Germain 5 corners, Nantes 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsParis Saint-Germain 9 fouls, Nantes 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Vitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarquinhos · Nantes · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorent Mollet · Nantes · 15′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Coco · Nantes · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Nantes · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Nantes · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorent Mollet · Nantes · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 57′ · 0.06 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.07 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 41′ · 0.08 xG · goalMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 55′ · 0.08 xG · goalOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 16′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 1′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 55′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMarco Asensio · Paris Saint-Germain · 85′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 58′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint-Germain · 83′ · 0.35 xG · on targetRandal Kolo Muani · Paris Saint-Germain · 83′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris Saint-Germain: 16 shots, 6 on target, 2.29 xG. Nantes: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 41′Randal Kolo Muani · Paris Saint-Germain · 83′Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris Saint-Germain 2.29 xG · Nantes 0.57 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Paris Saint-Germain
0Draws
1Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain — Nantes · Ligue 14–2
Nantes — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–3
Nantes — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 13–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Nantes · Ligue 13–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain15 matchesNantes15 matches
2.53 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151.27 goals/match
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/151.67 goals/match
2.16 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.26 xG/match
16.1 shots/match ▲Shots15/1512.6 shots/match
6.79 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/154.07 shots/match
65.7% ●Possession15/1546.2%
5.07 corners/match ●Corners15/155 corners/match
9.73 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headParis Saint-Germain — Nantes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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