PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Metz 0–1 Stade Brestois · Ligue 1

Metz

DDWWL
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Brestois won 0–1.

Shots
64
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.220.32
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stade Brestois beat Metz 1–0. Recorded in this match (Metz – Stade Brestois): shots 6–4, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.22–0.32, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Stade Brestois.

6.91 days ▲Rest daysMetz · Stade Brestois2.77 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMetzStade BrestoisBaseline
Rest days6.91 days2.77 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.2 shots/match ▲ShotsMetz · Stade Brestois14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzStade BrestoisBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match10.9 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots4 shotsMetz 6 shots, Stade Brestois 4 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsMetz 3 shots, Stade Brestois 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.22 xG0.32 xGMetz 0.22 xG, Stade Brestois 0.32 xG
  • Possession32%68%Metz 32%, Stade Brestois 68%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersMetz 3 corners, Stade Brestois 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls16 foulsMetz 14 fouls, Stade Brestois 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lamine Camara · Metz · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 56′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMaxime Colin · Metz · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDanley Jean Jacques · Metz · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAblie Jallow · Metz · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 32′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 5′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 31′ · 0.09 xG · on targetAblie Jallow · Metz · 67′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 75′ · 0.10 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.22 xG. Stade Brestois: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Jérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 0.22 xG · Stade Brestois 0.32 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Metz
0Draws
1Stade Brestois
Metz — Stade Brestois · Ligue 10–1
Stade Brestois — Metz · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Metz favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Stade Brestois in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Metz15 matchesStade Brestois15 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1 goal/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.35 xG/match
9.2 shots/matchShots15/15▲ 14.1 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲ 4.6 shots/match
33.9%Possession15/15● 52.8%
3.4 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.47 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMetzStade Brestois
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headMetz — Stade Brestois
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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