PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Montpellier 2–6 Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1

2–6Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 2–6.

Shots
1216
Shots on target
69
Expected goals
2.481.56
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Montpellier 6–2. Recorded in this match (Montpellier – Paris Saint-Germain): shots 12–16, shots on target 6–9, expected goals 2.48–1.56, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Montpellier's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Montpellier have a visible home split

moderate

Montpellier's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match13.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.8%PossessionMontpellier · Paris Saint-Germain● 65.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMontpellierParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Possession43.8%65.3%51.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots16 shotsMontpellier 12 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 16 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots9 shotsMontpellier 6 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 9 shots
  • Expected goals2.48 xG1.56 xGMontpellier 2.48 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 1.56 xG
  • Possession32%68%Montpellier 32%, Paris Saint-Germain 68%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersMontpellier 7 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsMontpellier 10 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 14′ · 0.02 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Leroy · Montpellier · 9′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 50′ · 0.03 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 53′ · 0.03 xG · goalWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ferri · Montpellier · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 25′ · 0.07 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 26′ · 0.08 xG · on targetWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLucas Mincarelli · Montpellier · 15′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 22′ · 0.10 xG · goalVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 68′ · 0.11 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 63′ · 0.12 xG · goalWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 88′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRandal Kolo Muani · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 81′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedTanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier · 44′ · 0.24 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.24 xG · goalWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 41′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 30′ · 0.51 xG · goalTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Montpellier: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.51 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 16 shots, 9 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Arnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 30′Teji Savanier · Montpellier · 45′Vitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 14′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 22′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 50′Kang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 53′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 63′Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Montpellier 2.51 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 1.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Montpellier
0Draws
5Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 13–0
Montpellier — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–3
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 15–2
Montpellier — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–4
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 12–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Montpellier favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Montpellier26 matchesParis Saint-Germain26 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 2.38 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 2.03 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 15 shots/match
5.23 shots/matchShots on target26/25▲ 6.12 shots/match
43.8%Possession26/26● 65.3%
4.35 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.42 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Mar 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMontpellierParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headMontpellier — Paris Saint-Germain
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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