PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023Sun, 17 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–6Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMontpellierParis Saint-Germain
Shots12 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.48 xG/match▲1.56 xG/match
Possession32%68%●
Corners7 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 14′ · 0.02 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Leroy · Montpellier · 9′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 50′ · 0.03 xG · goalKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 53′ · 0.03 xG · goalWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ferri · Montpellier · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 25′ · 0.07 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 26′ · 0.08 xG · on targetWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLucas Mincarelli · Montpellier · 15′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 22′ · 0.10 xG · goalVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 68′ · 0.11 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 63′ · 0.12 xG · goalWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 88′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRandal Kolo Muani · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain · 81′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedTanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier · 44′ · 0.24 xG · on targetNuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′ · 0.24 xG · goalWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 41′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 30′ · 0.51 xG · goalTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Montpellier: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.51 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 16 shots, 9 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Arnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 30′Teji Savanier · Montpellier · 45′Vitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 14′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 22′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 50′Kang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 53′Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 63′Nuno Mendes · Paris Saint-Germain · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Montpellier 2.51 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 1.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Montpellier's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Montpellier's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Montpellier have a visible home split

moderate

Montpellier's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match13.6 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.8%PossessionMontpellier · Paris Saint-Germain●65.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMontpellierParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Possession43.8%65.3%51.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Montpellier
0Draws
5Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 13–0
Montpellier — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–3
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 15–2
Montpellier — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–4
Paris Saint-Germain — Montpellier · Ligue 12–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Montpellier favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 11 · 2 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲2.38 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲0.88 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 26/26▲2.03 xG/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.25 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲15 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲12 shots/match
5.23 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/25▲6.12 shots/match
5.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/25▲4.4 shots/match
43.8%Possessionseason · 26/26●65.3%
4.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/26●5.42 corners/match
5.04 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲4.73 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲38%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Montpellier13.9
Paris Saint-Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Montpellier62
Paris Saint-Germain93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Montpellier18.5
Paris Saint-Germain66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Montpellier97.2
Paris Saint-Germain8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Montpellier58.3
Paris Saint-Germain2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Montpellier38.9
Paris Saint-Germain75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Montpellier59
Paris Saint-Germain65.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Montpellier26 matchesParis Saint-Germain26 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲2.38 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲0.88 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲2.03 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots26/26▲15 shots/match
5.23 shots/matchShots on target26/25▲6.12 shots/match
43.8%Possession26/26●65.3%
4.35 corners/matchCorners26/26●5.42 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Montpellier14 matchesParis Saint-Germain13 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored14/13▲2.23 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed14/13▲0.69 goals/match
1.69 xG/matchExpected goals14/13▲2.21 xG/match
16.7 shots/match▲Shots14/1314.8 shots/match
5.57 shots/matchShots on target14/13▲6.23 shots/match
45.6%Possession14/13●63.7%
5.14 corners/matchCorners14/13●5.31 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.2 fouls/matchFouls14/1311.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.32 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Mar 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMontpellierParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Montpellier vs Paris Saint-Germain — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath