PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Stade Brestois 4–3 Metz · Ligue 1

4–3Historical match

Metz

LWWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Brestois won 4–3.

Shots
258
Shots on target
116
Expected goals
3.752.25
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stade Brestois beat Metz 4–3. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – Metz): shots 25–8, shots on target 11–6, expected goals 3.75–2.25, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsStade Brestois · Metz9.96 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStade BrestoisMetzBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match9.96 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match15 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Stade Brestois have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.4% ●PossessionStade Brestois · Metz36.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStade BrestoisMetzBaseline
Possession53.4%36.1%51.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots8 shotsStade Brestois 25 shots, Metz 8 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots6 shotsStade Brestois 11 shots, Metz 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.75 xG2.25 xGStade Brestois 3.75 xG, Metz 2.25 xG
  • Possession66%34%Stade Brestois 66%, Metz 34%
  • Corners8 corners5 cornersStade Brestois 8 corners, Metz 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls17 foulsStade Brestois 11 fouls, Metz 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jonas Martin · Stade Brestois · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Stade Brestois · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Le Douaron · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKenny Lala · Stade Brestois · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 27′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 82′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRomain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLamine Camara · Metz · 84′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 14′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 66′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 52′ · 0.17 xG · on targetIsmaël Traoré · Metz · 6′ · 0.21 xG · goalSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 14′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMartín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 60′ · 0.27 xG · goalGeorges Mikautadze · Metz · 74′ · 0.27 xG · goalGeorges Mikautadze · Metz · 18′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 38′ · 0.33 xG · goalCheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz · 80′ · 0.42 xG · on targetBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois · 12′ · 0.44 xG · goalPapa Amadou Diallo · Metz · 73′ · 0.44 xG · on targetSteve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 30′ · 0.53 xG · on targetGeorges Mikautadze · Metz · 80′ · 0.79 xG · goalKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 31′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 25 shots, 11 on target, 3.71 xG. Metz: 8 shots, 5 on target, 2.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois · 12′Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 31′Steve Mounié · Stade Brestois · 38′Martín Satriano · Stade Brestois · 60′Ismaël Traoré · Metz · 6′Georges Mikautadze · Metz · 74′Georges Mikautadze · Metz · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 3.71 xG · Metz 2.55 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Stade Brestois
0Draws
1Metz
Metz — Stade Brestois · Ligue 10–1
Metz — Stade Brestois · Ligue 10–1
Stade Brestois — Metz · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Metz in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois28 matchesMetz28 matches
1.46 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281 goal/match
0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.71 goals/match
1.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/281.03 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots28/289.96 shots/match
5.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.54 shots/match
53.4% ●Possession28/2836.1%
4.46 corners/match ●Corners28/284.11 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisMetz
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Metz
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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