PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Metz 1–2 Lille · Ligue 1

Metz

LLLWW
1–2Historical match

Lille

DWWWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 1–2.

Shots
514
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
1.130.78
Possession
29%71%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Metz 2–1. Recorded in this match (Metz – Lille): shots 5–14, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 1.13–0.78, possession 29%–71%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Metz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Metz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lille.

6.92 days ▲Rest daysMetz · Lille3.67 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMetzLilleBaseline
Rest days6.92 days3.67 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.81 shots/match ▲ShotsMetz · Lille13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMetzLilleBaseline
Shots9.81 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match9.65 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots14 shotsMetz 5 shots, Lille 14 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsMetz 2 shots, Lille 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.13 xG0.78 xGMetz 1.13 xG, Lille 0.78 xG
  • Possession29%71%Metz 29%, Lille 71%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersMetz 2 corners, Lille 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls12 foulsMetz 15 fouls, Lille 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Edon Zhegrova · Lille · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLamine Camara · Metz · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRémy Cabella · Lille · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYusuf Yazıcı · Lille · 46′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKevin Van Den Kerkhof · Metz · 26′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRémy Cabella · Lille · 12′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 30′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Metz · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 44′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIsmaily · Lille · 31′ · 0.12 xG · goalYusuf Yazıcı · Lille · 44′ · 0.12 xG · goalBafodé Diakité · Lille · 63′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGeorges Mikautadze · Metz · 34′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedGeorges Mikautadze · Metz · 23′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Metz: 5 shots, 2 on target, 1.17 xG. Lille: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.79 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Georges Mikautadze · Metz · 23′Ismaily · Lille · 31′Yusuf Yazıcı · Lille · 44′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Metz 1.17 xG · Lille 0.79 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Metz
2Draws
1Lille
Lille — Metz · Ligue 12–0
Lille — Metz · Ligue 10–0
Metz — Lille · Ligue 13–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Metz favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Lille in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Metz31 matchesLille31 matches
1.03 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 1.45 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲ 0.87 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.46 xG/match
9.81 shots/matchShots31/31▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.48 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 5.13 shots/match
35.6%Possession31/31● 57%
4 corners/matchCorners31/31● 5.35 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls31/3111.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMetzLille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headMetz — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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