PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Toulouse 1–2 Montpellier · Ligue 1

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Montpellier won 1–2.

Shots
155
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.280.47
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Montpellier beat Toulouse 2–1. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Montpellier): shots 15–5, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.28–0.47, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Montpellier's recent record differs from the season

weak

Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.28 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.28 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Montpellier have a visible away split

moderate

Montpellier's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots5 shotsToulouse 15 shots, Montpellier 5 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsToulouse 5 shots, Montpellier 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG0.47 xGToulouse 1.28 xG, Montpellier 0.47 xG
  • Possession63%37%Toulouse 63%, Montpellier 37%
  • Corners8 corners0 cornersToulouse 8 corners, Montpellier 0 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls14 foulsToulouse 17 fouls, Montpellier 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Akor Adams · Montpellier · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetShavy Babicka · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 27′ · 0.05 xG · goalThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJordan Ferri · Montpellier · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 78′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 79′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Schmidt · Toulouse · 39′ · 0.08 xG · on targetThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 20′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.09 xG · goalThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKhalil Fayad · Montpellier · 81′ · 0.16 xG · goalIssiaga Sylla · Montpellier · 47′ · 0.18 xG · on targetLogan Costa · Toulouse · 17′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 20′ · 0.33 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.33 xG. Montpellier: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.45 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse · 34′Teji Savanier · Montpellier · 27′Khalil Fayad · Montpellier · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.33 xG · Montpellier 0.45 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Toulouse
0Draws
1Montpellier
Montpellier — Toulouse · Ligue 13–0
Montpellier — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — Montpellier · Ligue 14–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Montpellier in 4 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse32 matchesMontpellier32 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored32/321.28 goals/match
1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed32/321.38 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.4 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots32/32▲ 13.1 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 5.03 shots/match
48.6% ●Possession32/3244.3%
4.34 corners/match ●Corners32/324.22 corners/match
15 fouls/matchFouls32/3212.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 3 May 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseMontpellier
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
Head-to-headToulouse — Montpellier
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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