PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Nantes 1–1 Nice · Ligue 1

Nantes

WLDDL
1–1Historical match

Nice

WLWDD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nantes and Nice drew 1–1.

Shots
1113
Shots on target
77
Expected goals
0.490.85
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nantes and Nice drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Nantes – Nice): shots 11–13, shots on target 7–7, expected goals 0.49–0.85, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.25 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes have a visible home split

weak

Nantes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots13 shotsNantes 11 shots, Nice 13 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots7 shotsNantes 7 shots, Nice 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.49 xG0.85 xGNantes 0.49 xG, Nice 0.85 xG
  • Possession42%58%Nantes 42%, Nice 58%
  • Corners4 corners8 cornersNantes 4 corners, Nice 8 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsNantes 10 fouls, Nice 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gaëtan Laborde · Nice · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes · 82′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJérémie Boga · Nice · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAli Abdi · Nice · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Mendy · Nice · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEvann Guessand · Nice · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKelvin Amian · Nantes · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDehmaine Tabibou · Nantes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKelvin Amian · Nantes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 47′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFlorent Mollet · Nantes · 60′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPablo Rosario · Nice · 70′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEvann Guessand · Nice · 72′ · 0.05 xG · goalGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 4′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPablo Rosario · Nice · 21′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEvann Guessand · Nice · 45′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEvann Guessand · Nice · 42′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJérémie Boga · Nice · 28′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 67′ · 0.13 xG · goalJérémie Boga · Nice · 52′ · 0.18 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 11 shots, 7 on target, 0.49 xG. Nice: 13 shots, 7 on target, 0.79 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 67′Evann Guessand · Nice · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.49 xG · Nice 0.79 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nantes
2Draws
1Nice
Nice — Nantes · Ligue 11–2
Nantes — Nice · Ligue 11–0
Nantes — Nice · Ligue 12–2
Nice — Nantes · Ligue 11–1
Nice — Nantes · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nantes favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Nice in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nantes8 matchesNice8 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1 goal/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.68 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 12.6 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5.5 shots/match
43.5%Possession8/8● 49.3%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners8/84.75 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls8/89.75 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNantesNice
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headNantes — Nice
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required