PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

RC Strasbourg 3–1 Nantes · Ligue 1

3–1Historical match

Nantes

LDDLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Strasbourg won 3–1.

Shots
98
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.730.76
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

RC Strasbourg beat Nantes 3–1. Recorded in this match (RC Strasbourg – Nantes): shots 9–8, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.73–0.76, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.22 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes have a visible away split

moderate

Nantes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RC Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

RC Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsRC Strasbourg · Nantes11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRC StrasbourgNantesBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots8 shotsRC Strasbourg 9 shots, Nantes 8 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsRC Strasbourg 5 shots, Nantes 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.73 xG0.76 xGRC Strasbourg 1.73 xG, Nantes 0.76 xG
  • Possession51%49%RC Strasbourg 51%, Nantes 49%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersRC Strasbourg 5 corners, Nantes 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls17 foulsRC Strasbourg 15 fouls, Nantes 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 9′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 81′ · 0.05 xG · on targetBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 83′ · 0.05 xG · goalSaïdou Sow · RC Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 64′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNathan Zeze · Nantes · 49′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTino Kadewere · Nantes · 60′ · 0.12 xG · on targetDiego Moreira · RC Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAndrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 17′ · 0.30 xG · goalAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 48′ · 0.36 xG · on targetDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 73′ · 0.49 xG · goalAndrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 57′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RC Strasbourg: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.74 xG. Nantes: 8 shots, 6 on target, 0.79 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 17′Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 57′Dilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 73′Bahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RC Strasbourg 1.74 xG · Nantes 0.79 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3RC Strasbourg
1Draws
1Nantes
Nantes — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 11–3
RC Strasbourg — Nantes · Ligue 11–2
Nantes — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 10–2
RC Strasbourg — Nantes · Ligue 11–1
RC Strasbourg — Nantes · Ligue 11–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RC Strasbourg favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RC Strasbourg9 matchesNantes9 matches
2.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.79 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.05 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots9/911.2 shots/match
6.11 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/94.67 shots/match
47.8% ●Possession9/944.1%
4.44 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.33 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/911.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRC StrasbourgNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headRC Strasbourg — Nantes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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