PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Lille 3–1 Stade Brestois · Ligue 1

Lille

WDDWD
3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 3–1.

Shots
107
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.510.65
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Stade Brestois 3–1. Recorded in this match (Lille – Stade Brestois): shots 10–7, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.51–0.65, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stade Brestois's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stade Brestois's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Brestois show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Stade Brestois's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · Stade Brestois11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleStade BrestoisBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9.64 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots7 shotsLille 10 shots, Stade Brestois 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsLille 6 shots, Stade Brestois 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.51 xG0.65 xGLille 2.51 xG, Stade Brestois 0.65 xG
  • Possession62%38%Lille 62%, Stade Brestois 38%
  • Corners2 corners1 cornerLille 2 corners, Stade Brestois 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsLille 13 fouls, Stade Brestois 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · Stade Brestois · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEdon Zhegrova · Lille · 69′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMassadio Haïdara · Stade Brestois · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAyyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuc Zogbé · Stade Brestois · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 58′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 48′ · 0.11 xG · goalRémy Cabella · Lille · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 77′ · 0.18 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 51′ · 0.36 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 69′ · 0.54 xG · goalHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 44′ · 0.61 xG · goalJonathan David · Lille · 7′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 10 shots, 6 on target, 2.53 xG. Stade Brestois: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Jonathan David · Lille · 7′Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 44′Jonathan David · Lille · 69′Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 2.53 xG · Stade Brestois 0.68 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Lille
2Draws
1Stade Brestois
Stade Brestois — Lille · Ligue 11–1
Lille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–0
Lille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 12–1
Stade Brestois — Lille · Ligue 10–0
Stade Brestois — Lille · Ligue 12–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Stade Brestois in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille14 matchesStade Brestois14 matches
1.71 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141.43 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed14/141.86 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/131.15 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots14/1311.6 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target14/134.46 shots/match
57.1% ●Possession14/1350.5%
3.93 corners/match ●Corners14/133.85 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1313.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Dec 2024, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleStade Brestois
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headLille — Stade Brestois
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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