Ligue 1 · 2024Fri, 3 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nice

DWLWD

3–2Full-time recap

Stade Rennais

LLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nice	Stade Rennais
Shots	9 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.5 xG/match	1.71 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nice: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.48 xG. Stade Rennais: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 1.48 xG · Stade Rennais 1.67 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Rennais's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Stade Rennais's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Stade Rennais's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Rennais's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.38 goals/match	1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Stade Rennais have a visible away split

moderate

Stade Rennais's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.88 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.88 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Nice

1Draws

2Stade Rennais

13 Jan 2024Stade Rennais — Nice · Ligue 12–0

5 Nov 2023Nice — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–0

6 May 2023Nice — Stade Rennais · Ligue 12–1

2 Jan 2023Stade Rennais — Nice · Ligue 12–1

2 Apr 2022Nice — Stade Rennais · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Stade Rennais in 5 · 2 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.38 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.44 goals/match

1.73 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/161.2 xG/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.15 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.3 shots/match

14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲10.2 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.56 shots/match

5.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.25 shots/match

47.4%Possessionseason · 16/16●51.7%

4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/16●5.5 corners/match

5.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.13 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1613.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲31%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice47.2

Stade Rennais63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice84.3

Stade Rennais39.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice36.1

Stade Rennais69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice97.2

Stade Rennais19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice8.3

Stade Rennais75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice58.3

Stade Rennais80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice58.3

Stade Rennais57

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nice16 matchesStade Rennais16 matches

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.44 goals/match

1.73 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.2 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.3 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.56 shots/match

47.4%Possession16/16●51.7%

4.5 corners/matchCorners16/16●5.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nice8 matchesStade Rennais8 matches

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.75 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match

1.98 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.95 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots8/88.88 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84 shots/match

47.5%Possession8/8●48.1%

4.5 corners/matchCorners8/8●4.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls8/814.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

19.3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/119.2 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Stade Rennais's recent record differs from the season

Stade Rennais have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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