PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Lille 1–1 Nantes · Ligue 1

Lille

DWDWD
1–1Historical match

Nantes

LLDWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille and Nantes drew 1–1.

Shots
136
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
1.191.33
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille and Nantes drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Lille – Nantes): shots 13–6, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 1.19–1.33, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nantes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · Nantes11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleNantesBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match11 shots/match11.7 shots/match
Shots against9.38 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nantes have a visible away split

moderate

Nantes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.22 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.22 shots/match11 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots6 shotsLille 13 shots, Nantes 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsLille 3 shots, Nantes 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG1.33 xGLille 1.19 xG, Nantes 1.33 xG
  • Possession71%29%Lille 71%, Nantes 29%
  • Corners2 corners0 cornersLille 2 corners, Nantes 0 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 foulsLille 6 fouls, Nantes 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Lille · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 28′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Lille · 40′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Lille · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetGabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 41′ · 0.12 xG · goalMatthis Abline · Nantes · 48′ · 0.14 xG · on targetOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 57′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Lille · 60′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 25′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 23′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 70′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.22 xG. Nantes: 6 shots, 2 on target, 1.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Gabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 41′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.22 xG · Nantes 1.34 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Lille
1Draws
0Nantes
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 11–2
Lille — Nantes · Ligue 12–0
Lille — Nantes · Ligue 12–1
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 11–1
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 10–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille16 matchesNantes16 matches
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.13 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.56 goals/match
1.67 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.09 xG/match
12.1 shots/match ▲Shots16/1611 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164.06 shots/match
57.1% ●Possession16/1641.6%
4.06 corners/matchCorners16/16● 4.63 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls16/1612 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Jan 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headLille — Nantes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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