PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Lille 2–1 Nice · Ligue 1

Lille

DWDDD
2–1Historical match

Nice

LWDWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lille won 2–1.

Shots
1111
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.122.93
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lille beat Nice 2–1. Recorded in this match (Lille – Nice): shots 11–11, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.12–2.93, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match2 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.8% ●PossessionLille · Nice47.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLilleNiceBaseline
Possession57.8%47.2%48%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots11 shotsLille 11 shots, Nice 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsLille 4 shots, Nice 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.12 xG2.93 xGLille 1.12 xG, Nice 2.93 xG
  • Possession55%45%Lille 55%, Nice 45%
  • Corners7 corners7 cornersLille 7 corners, Nice 7 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls13 foulsLille 13 fouls, Nice 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ismaily · Lille · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Lille · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Meunier · Lille · 44′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 13′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMitchel Bakker · Lille · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 3′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 9′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBafodé Diakité · Lille · 65′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 87′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 48′ · 0.30 xG · goalGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 28′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedBafodé Diakité · Lille · 63′ · 0.39 xG · goalPablo Rosario · Nice · 4′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blockedTanguy Ndombélé · Nice · 45′ · 0.71 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 29′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.14 xG. Nice: 11 shots, 3 on target, 2.93 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 48′Bafodé Diakité · Lille · 63′Sofiane Diop · Nice · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.14 xG · Nice 2.93 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Lille
3Draws
2Nice
Nice — Lille · Ligue 12–2
Lille — Nice · Ligue 12–2
Nice — Lille · Ligue 11–1
Nice — Lille · Ligue 11–0
Lille — Nice · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Nice in 6

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille18 matchesNice18 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 2 goals/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.39 goals/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.84 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 5.72 shots/match
57.8% ●Possession18/1847.2%
4.56 corners/matchCorners18/184.56 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleNice
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headLille — Nice
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required