PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Nantes 3–1 RC Lens · Ligue 1

Nantes

DDWLL
3–1Historical match

RC Lens

LWWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nantes won 3–1.

Shots
1714
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
4.411.77
Possession
35%65%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nantes beat RC Lens 3–1. Recorded in this match (Nantes – RC Lens): shots 17–14, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 4.41–1.77, possession 35%–65%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RC Lens's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RC Lens's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes have a visible home split

moderate

Nantes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match10.9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

RC Lens have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.6%PossessionNantes · RC Lens● 54.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNantesRC LensBaseline
Possession40.6%54.6%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots14 shotsNantes 17 shots, RC Lens 14 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsNantes 8 shots, RC Lens 4 shots
  • Expected goals4.41 xG1.77 xGNantes 4.41 xG, RC Lens 1.77 xG
  • Possession35%65%Nantes 35%, RC Lens 65%
  • Corners2 corners11 cornersNantes 2 corners, RC Lens 11 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls18 foulsNantes 13 fouls, RC Lens 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Florian Sotoca · RC Lens · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGoduine Koyalipou · RC Lens · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnass Zaroury · RC Lens · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 68′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTom Pouilly · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Sotoca · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Nantes · 57′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFrancis Coquelin · Nantes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMalang Sarr · RC Lens · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Medina · RC Lens · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · RC Lens · 35′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLouis Leroux · Nantes · 48′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 36′ · 0.13 xG · on targetSaïdou Sow · Nantes · 52′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 50′ · 0.14 xG · on targetM'bala Nzola · RC Lens · 62′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Fulgini · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 5′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedLouis Leroux · Nantes · 36′ · 0.26 xG · goalTom Pouilly · RC Lens · 90′ · 0.32 xG · on targetNicolas Pallois · Nantes · 52′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blockedFrancis Coquelin · Nantes · 90′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedKelvin Amian · Nantes · 50′ · 0.68 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Nantes · 60′ · 0.82 xG · goalNeil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 65′ · 0.82 xG · goalMeschak Elia · Nantes · 90′ · 0.88 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 17 shots, 8 on target, 4.60 xG. RC Lens: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.550′HT90′Louis Leroux · Nantes · 36′Moses Simon · Nantes · 60′Meschak Elia · Nantes · 90′Neil El Aynaoui · RC Lens · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 4.60 xG · RC Lens 1.88 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Nantes
1Draws
4RC Lens
RC Lens — Nantes · Ligue 13–2
Nantes — RC Lens · Ligue 10–1
RC Lens — Nantes · Ligue 14–0
RC Lens — Nantes · Ligue 13–1
Nantes — RC Lens · Ligue 10–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nantes favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · RC Lens in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nantes23 matchesRC Lens23 matches
1.22 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/231.13 goals/match
1.74 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.09 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.59 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 14.1 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target23/234.3 shots/match
40.6%Possession23/23● 54.6%
4.61 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.78 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls23/2315.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNantesRC Lens
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headNantes — RC Lens
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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