PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024Sat, 17 May 2025, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRC StrasbourgLe Havre
Shots6 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.46 xG/match2.46 xG/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners4 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Étienne Youte Kinkoue · Le Havre · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAhmed Hassan · Le Havre · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · RC Strasbourg · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSékou Mara · RC Strasbourg · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 74′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 85′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedAndrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 20′ · 0.23 xG · goalIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 29′ · 0.27 xG · on targetJosué Casimir · Le Havre · 70′ · 0.46 xG · goalSebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg · 53′ · 0.51 xG · goalSékou Mara · RC Strasbourg · 17′ · 0.61 xG · on targetAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 43′ · 0.82 xG · goalAbdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RC Strasbourg: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1.66 xG. Le Havre: 10 shots, 5 on target, 2.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 20′Sebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg · 53′Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 43′Josué Casimir · Le Havre · 70′Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RC Strasbourg 1.66 xG · Le Havre 2.56 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.18 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2RC Strasbourg
0Draws
1Le Havre
Le Havre — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 10–3
Le Havre — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 13–1
RC Strasbourg — Le Havre · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

RC Strasbourg favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Le Havre in 0 · 3 too close

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/341.18 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/342.09 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 33/331.29 xG/match
1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 33/331.89 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/3310.4 shots/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 33/3314.4 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/333.39 shots/match
4.91 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 33/335.39 shots/match
49.8%●Possessionseason · 33/3342.6%
4.15 corners/match●Cornersseason · 33/333.91 corners/match
4.85 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/335.52 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3311.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3412%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3474%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RC Strasbourg58.3
Le Havre19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RC Strasbourg40.7
Le Havre20.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RC Strasbourg45.4
Le Havre21.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RC Strasbourg2.8
Le Havre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RC Strasbourg36.1
Le Havre13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 49%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RC Strasbourg30.6
Le Havre8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RC Strasbourg29.9
Le Havre13.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

RC Strasbourg34 matchesLe Havre34 matches
1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored34/341.18 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/342.09 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals33/331.29 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots33/3310.4 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target33/333.39 shots/match
49.8%●Possession33/3342.6%
4.15 corners/match●Corners33/333.91 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls33/3311.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

RC Strasbourg17 matchesLe Havre17 matches
1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.47 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.76 goals/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.24 xG/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots17/179.88 shots/match
4.41 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.29 shots/match
48.8%●Possession17/1740%
4.24 corners/match●Corners17/174.12 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 May 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRC StrasbourgLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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RC Strasbourg vs Le Havre — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath