PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfB Stuttgart 3–1 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 3–1.

Shots
2410
Shots on target
103
Expected goals
1.811.7
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC Bayern München 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – FC Bayern München): shots 24–10, shots on target 10–3, expected goals 1.81–1.7, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Bayern München's last-five shots average is below their season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match19.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots10 shotsVfB Stuttgart 24 shots, FC Bayern München 10 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots3 shotsVfB Stuttgart 10 shots, FC Bayern München 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.81 xG1.7 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.81 xG, FC Bayern München 1.7 xG
  • Possession61%39%VfB Stuttgart 61%, FC Bayern München 39%
  • Corners3 corners1 cornerVfB Stuttgart 3 corners, FC Bayern München 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsVfB Stuttgart 10 fouls, FC Bayern München 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 9′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 68′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 47′ · 0.06 xG · on targetKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 25′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBryan Zaragoza · FC Bayern München · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 10′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 68′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 28′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 78′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedSilas · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.15 xG · goalDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 61′ · 0.17 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedWoo-Yeong Jeong · VfB Stuttgart · 83′ · 0.24 xG · goalEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 48′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedLeonidas Stergiou · VfB Stuttgart · 29′ · 0.30 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 24 shots, 9 on target, 1.81 xG. FC Bayern München: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Leonidas Stergiou · VfB Stuttgart · 29′Woo-Yeong Jeong · VfB Stuttgart · 83′Silas · VfB Stuttgart · 90′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 1.81 xG · FC Bayern München 1.74 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0VfB Stuttgart
2Draws
3FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–0
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–2
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–2
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart32 matchesFC Bayern München32 matches
2.28 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲ 2.81 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed32/321.28 goals/match
2.14 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 2.66 xG/match
15.5 shots/matchShots32/32▲ 19.4 shots/match
6.28 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 7.34 shots/match
59.8%Possession32/32● 61.8%
4.78 corners/matchCorners32/32● 6.84 corners/match
9.84 fouls/matchFouls32/329 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 May 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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