PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

SC Freiburg 3–2 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg won 3–2.

Shots
1414
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
0.691.82
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg beat Holstein Kiel 3–2. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – Holstein Kiel): shots 14–14, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 0.69–1.82, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · Holstein Kiel11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgHolstein KielBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match16.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots14 shotsSC Freiburg 14 shots, Holstein Kiel 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsSC Freiburg 5 shots, Holstein Kiel 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.69 xG1.82 xGSC Freiburg 0.69 xG, Holstein Kiel 1.82 xG
  • Possession51%49%SC Freiburg 51%, Holstein Kiel 49%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerSC Freiburg 7 corners, Holstein Kiel 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsSC Freiburg 9 fouls, Holstein Kiel 12 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg16 matchesHolstein Kiel16 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.31 goals/match
1.63 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/162.56 goals/match
1.42 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.14 xG/match
13.7 shots/match ▲Shots16/1611.2 shots/match
4.69 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164.38 shots/match
49.6% ●Possession16/1644.2%
4.31 corners/match ●Corners16/163.69 corners/match
7.81 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Jan 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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