Serie A · 2023Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Monza

LWL

1–1Full-time recap

Lecce

WDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Monza	Lecce
Shots	25 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.18 xG/match▲	0.89 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	10 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Monza: 25 shots, 5 on target, 2.19 xG. Lecce: 4 shots, 3 on target, 0.93 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 2.19 xG · Lecce 0.93 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Monza have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Monza show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Monza's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsMonza · Lecce13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Monza	Lecce	Baseline
Shots	16.3 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	15.5 shots/match	14 shots/match	12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Monza have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.5%●PossessionMonza · Lecce43%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Monza	Lecce	Baseline
Possession	56.5%	43%	49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monza

1Draws

1Lecce

28 May 2023Monza — Lecce · Serie A0–1

11 Sept 2022Lecce — Monza · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Monza favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 13 too close

0.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.75 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.11 xG/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.55 xG/match

16.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/413.3 shots/match

15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/414 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/44.5 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44.5 shots/match

56.5%●Possessionseason · 4/443%

5.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 4/43.75 corners/match

5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/413.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%

50%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monza82.5

Lecce12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monza49.2

Lecce60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monza33.3

Lecce55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monza67.5

Lecce82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monza82.5

Lecce87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monza67.5

Lecce37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monza68.8

Lecce60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Monza4 matchesLecce4 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲1.75 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match

1.33 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.11 xG/match

16.3 shots/match▲Shots4/413.3 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲4.5 shots/match

56.5%●Possession4/443%

5.5 corners/match●Corners4/43.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls4/413.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Monza2 matchesLecce2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.8 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples4 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4